The news, reported first by the New York Times, that the US is suspending or withdrawing from negotiations on the Tech Prosperity Deal (TPD) came too late for us to include in our latest detailed analysis of progress made by the UK and US teams on the earlier Economic Prosperity Deal (EPD) which was announced back in May.  The analysis from our Senior Policy Manager, Fran Lentini, can be found here and shows that since the initial agreement, through which the new higher tariffs were imposed on UK exporters, progress on the other issues contemplated in the EPD (which is really a framework or ‘heads of terms’) has been spotty.  Our sense is that the US negotiating teams were looking for the same level of radical change in sectors like agrifood, tech and digital regulation that they had achieved in tariffs, and this has bumped up against red lines from the UK which are politically too difficult to cross.  The suspension of discussion on the TPD topics, which is where all the ideas around industries of the future are housed, is disappointing and we hope will be temporary; either way, we will continue to track and report on progress. 

There has been one more positive development over the Christmas break with confirmation from the US that the promised 13,000 tonne beef quota for UK exporters to the US will become effective from January 1st. As if it needed more reasons for the rest of the world to be focusing on it, two major events will bring additional attention to the USA in 2026.  The semi-quincentennial anniversary of the Declaration of Independence will see events running all year, including a reception that BAB is co-hosting at the Foreign Office in London on February 2nd.  We will also be holding our annual policy conference on February 2nd at Chicago Booth Business School in the City and we encourage all BAB members with an interest in trade and investment policy to attend by registering here. 

And in the summer, the States will co-host an expanded 48 team football (soccer) world cup with Mexico and Canada.  I assume that, like me, most of you are currently more focused on whether Watford can solidify their promotion chances and whether Thomas Frank will last the full season at Spurs but come the summer, all eyes will be on the tournament.  As an Anglo-Scottish dual citizen, I already have three teams to follow and either Wales or Northern Ireland have a chance to make it to the tournament too if they can get past Italy in the play-offs.  I am always ridiculously optimistic about these big tournaments and if England can get past Croatia on July 19th, you never know…it could be coming home! 

Happy new year to all.